Metric — LTV and ARPU

Last updated: May 19, 2026

Metric — LTV and ARPU

LTV (Lifetime Value) = total revenue from one customer over their relationship lifetime. ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) = revenue ÷ active users over a period. Neither is calculated by Wevion — they're external metrics from your backend / commerce / analytics tools. Why mediabuyers care: LTV anchors your target ROAS and max acceptable CPA. Get LTV from your business team; apply to Wevion via campaign targets + Rules Engine thresholds.

Who is this for

Anyone setting ROAS targets, CPA caps, or making allocation decisions where customer lifetime value matters (subscription, retention-driven businesses, services).

Definitions

LTV (Lifetime Value)

Total revenue (or gross margin contribution) from one customer over the duration of their relationship with your business.

Examples:

  • E-commerce: avg purchase value × purchases per year × years retained

  • SaaS subscription: monthly subscription × months retained

  • Service: avg contract value × renewal frequency

  • Marketplace: take rate × GMV per user × tenure

ARPU (Average Revenue Per User)

Revenue ÷ active users in a period (typically monthly: MARPU; annual: ARPU).

Simpler than LTV — point-in-time average. Useful when you don't have full lifetime data yet.

Why Wevion doesn't calculate them

LTV + ARPU require post-conversion data Wevion doesn't have:

  • Subsequent purchases (Wevion sees the initial conversion, not the second / third)

  • Refunds / chargebacks (your accounting system has these)

  • Subscription churn (your billing system has these)

  • Long-term retention (your analytics has cohort data over years)

These live in your backend / Stripe / Mixpanel / your DB.

Wevion is an ad-spend layer. LTV is a business-economics layer above.

How to use LTV / ARPU in Wevion

Set target ROAS

The fundamental formula:

Target ROAS = 1 / (gross margin × LTV multiplier)

Where:

  • gross margin = (revenue − COGS) / revenue (e.g. 50%)

  • LTV multiplier = how much more lifetime value the customer brings beyond the first purchase (e.g. 3× if repeat customers buy 3× over lifetime)

Worked example:

  • AOV (avg order value): €100

  • Gross margin: 50% = €50 gross profit per order

  • LTV multiplier: 3 (repeat buys over 2 years)

  • LTV gross profit: €50 × 3 = €150 per customer

Break-even target ROAS:

Target ROAS = 1 / (0.5 × 3) = 1 / 1.5 = 0.67

That means: even at ROAS 0.67 on first purchase, you break even over the customer lifetime. With a profit margin goal: aim higher (e.g. 1.5-2 first-purchase ROAS).

Conservative: use 6-12 month LTV cap (not full lifetime) for tighter ROAS targets — protects against over-projecting retention.

Set max acceptable CPA

For lead-gen / SaaS:

Max CPA = LTV × profit margin × payback period multiplier

Example:

  • LTV: €500

  • Gross margin: 70%

  • Want 12-month payback

Then max CPA = €500 × 0.7 × (12/lifetime_months) ≈ €175 if LTV span 24 months.

Apply max CPA as Rules Engine threshold:

IF cpa gt 175 AND spend gt 50 FOR last_7d THEN pause

See rul-116 best practices.

Conservative LTV practices

Don't use full theoretical LTV

If your data says LTV = €1000 over 5 years: don't bid as if you'll see all €1000 immediately. Use shorter window (6-12 months) — protects cash flow + accounts for churn risk.

Discount for cohort risk

Newer customer cohorts may not retain like older ones (changing market, competition, product). Apply a discount factor (e.g. 80% of historical LTV).

Update quarterly

LTV / ARPU change with product changes, pricing changes, market conditions. Refresh quarterly + adjust ROAS / CPA targets accordingly.

Per-segment LTV

LTV varies by customer segment (geography, source, acquisition channel). High-intent Search may have higher LTV than broad Display. Segment LTV → segment-specific targets.

ARPU as a simpler proxy

If you don't have full LTV data yet:

ARPU (monthly) = monthly revenue ÷ active users

Multiply by expected retention months for a rough LTV proxy.

Less accurate than cohort-based LTV but easier to compute.

Connecting LTV / ARPU to Wevion workflow

Set workspace currency

Make sure Wevion's target_currency matches the currency you're calculating LTV in. Otherwise cross-currency conversion noise affects target precision.

Track first-purchase ROAS

Wevion shows you ROAS on purchase value tracked at conversion time (typically first purchase). To bridge to LTV ROAS: apply your LTV multiplier outside Wevion.

Tracker integration

If your tracker (Keitaro, Voluum, etc.) reports back lifetime / repeat purchase data: use those tracker postbacks for richer ROAS-like metrics. See tracker_roas field (com-121).

Rules Engine + LTV-derived targets

Create rules with thresholds derived from LTV math:

IF roas lt <LTV-derived target × 0.5> AND spend gt 50 FOR last_7d THEN pause
IF roas gt <LTV-derived target × 1.5> AND spend gt 100 FOR last_3d THEN increase_budget_pct 20

See rul-116 best practices.

Common mistakes

  • Treating Wevion ROAS as final LTV ROAS: Wevion sees initial purchase; LTV is downstream

  • Optimistic LTV assumptions: over-bidding now, regretting later

  • Static LTV: never updating; market changes invalidate the math

  • One LTV for all customers: cohort + segment differences matter

  • Ignoring payback period: high LTV but 5-year payback = cash flow nightmare for growing accounts

When NOT to apply LTV-based targets

Brand campaigns

Goal is reach + brand-lift, not direct conversion. LTV less relevant.

Awareness campaigns

Same — measure reach + CPM, not LTV-derived ROAS.

One-off products

If you sell a single product with no repeat (e.g. one-time digital download): LTV = first-purchase value, no multiplier.

Brand-new business

Without LTV data: use cautious target ROAS (e.g. 2-3× first-purchase break-even) until you have 6-12 months of retention data.

Common questions

Where do I get my LTV number?

Your finance / data team. Common sources:

  • Stripe (subscription LTV)

  • Shopify analytics (e-commerce cohort)

  • Mixpanel / Amplitude (product analytics)

  • Custom data warehouse query

Why doesn't Wevion just calculate LTV?

Because Wevion doesn't have your backend's full picture (subscription churn, refunds, repeat behavior, etc.). Better to keep LTV calculation where the source-of-truth data lives.

Can I import LTV per customer into Wevion?

Not directly. But tracker integrations can include downstream value (tracker_revenue field). Some advanced setups bridge backend data into tracker postbacks.

How precise must LTV be for targeting?

A ballpark with 20-30% accuracy is enough. The Rules Engine + manual review catch outliers; LTV is the strategic anchor, not the per-decision micro-input.

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